Gary Null and Jeremy Stillman - How Safe are America’s Nuclear Reactors from Severe Solar Storms? A Real Armageddon Meltdown is Possible

More than ever, we are facing unprecedented environmental disasters ranging from harsh, snowy winters pounding the Northeast, desiccating drought across Texas and New Mexico, powerful tornadoes demolishing towns in the Midwest and record rainfalls and flooding in different states. Over the course of a week this past summer, the East Coast experienced an earthquake and hurricane.

This trend of environmental events has become the new norm and it has coincided with our country coming down with a bad case of” Waiting for Katrina Syndrome” – a condition in which people refuse to examine the power of nature to disrupt their lives. Symptoms include ignorance and apathy over measures that could be taken to prevent calamity and unconditional acceptance of the outright lies and propaganda doled out by government and private industry leaders.

To make matters worse, our decrepit water and gas systems has been around for 60 to 80 years. Our roads, bridges and tunnels and levees are in a state of abject disrepair. We have not taken the crucial step of constructing emergency facilities in our cities and towns. Besides putting many people to work, building these facilities would provide some semblance of civility during a time of crisis. People would be able to take refuge and have access to medical clinics and food banks. The current response network that relies on the Red Cross, FEMA and the National Guard during times of crisis is dangerously inadequate.

Now imagine that something could dwarf all of this; something that could kill tens of millions of Americans and cause at least half of America to experience life as if they were living in a Mad Max film. Imagine that a gigantic mass of plasma, or coronal mass ejection (CME), is released from the sun and heads directly for the Earth. Even though politicians and energy execs assure we can withstand such an event, the power of this CME overwhelms our electric grids and fries our power substations rendering them beyond repair. Our communications satellites are also severely damaged during the solar event and are unable to function. We are not told what has happened. When we pick up our phones, there is no dial tone. When we turn on the radio or television, we hear nothing. We head out to the street to ask our neighbors what has happened, but nobody seems to know.

We return to our houses and wait. We realize that the freezer is defrosting and our food will soon spoil. We turn on the water faucet but nothing comes out. In suburbia, people aren’t able to fill their cars at gas stations so they head to stores on foot, stocking up as much as they can on batteries, candles and nonperishable food. The first night comes and goes.

On day two, people begin to worry as the backup generators that were keeping power online at hospitals begin to fail. Members of FEMA and the National Guard appear in neighborhoods and people form long lines to receive a few gallons of water. Other people pack up their cars and head out of town only to find that the highways are bumper to bumper with vehicles that have run out of gas.

On day five, panic ensues. Thousands of people are dying in hospitals. Banks and pharmacies have been closed for nearly a week and people aren’t able to make credit card transactions or get their prescription medications. The few FEMA water tanks that were available are beginning to dry up and federal authorities say that they are overwhelmed by the many of millions of people in the tri-state area alone who are reaching a point of desperation.

On day ten, widespread dehydration sets in. People are left to steal whatever they can to survive. The law enforcement that still exists is protecting the power elite. The mayor and governor are doing fine as FEMA works to ensure they are well protected. Millions of people are frantic and helplessly unprepared as society descends into a state of lawlessness. The wealthy individuals living on Sutton Place and Park Avenue are even worse off as they are preyed upon by swarms of gangs. Police have abandoned their positions as they choose to protect the safety of their families first. Those in possession of firearms will do their best to protect their homes and families.

Then the really bad news starts. We come face to face with the truth of our political choices. No one chose to bury a year’s worth of diesel fuel tanks at the Indian Point nuclear plant on New York’s Hudson River so that in case the electric grid failed, the facility could still operate its own cooling system. As it is, Indian Point has been determined by the US Geological Survey to be the most dangerous reactor in America. Nor did anyone make the decision to put technology in place that would allow Indian Point to be a self-sustaining, closed loop system that could function independent of the electrical grid.

The workers at Indian Point understand the crisis at hand and they know that when the final backup generator ceases to function, it will only be a few days or less before the water used to cool the spent fuel rods evaporates completely. They realize that without the water in place, the highly radioactive spent fuel rods are at risk to explode into another Fukushima.

No one will hear or see the explosion, but with the wind traveling at 10 mph, over 30 million people located downwind in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will get their first wave of radiation within 5-8 hours. A wave that will continue 24 hours a day, 7 days a week; exposing every drop of water and inch of soil, every home, building and car and most importantly, every person’s body with a barrage of lethal radioactive substances such as cesium-137, iodine-131, plutonium and tritium.

Within four weeks we will see many thousands of people, young and old, dying en masse. There will be no help or medicine and people will become hysterical. Word spreads that a nuclear power plant exploded and people will begin to flee on foot. The few cars that do have fuel will be commandeered as desperate people try to escape. But where to go and how far before you are out of harm’s way? Wherever the wind blows is where the radiation will go.

We will see the beginning of an apocalypse where those twenty million people are joined by millions more who take on huge amounts of ionizing radiation. It will be Chernobyl, an unmitigated catastrophe that claimed the lives of 1 million people, times 100. That’s because Indian Point will not be the only nuclear plant affected- the nuclear facilities in Pennsylvania, California, Nebraska, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida also had explosions.

The entire energy industry thought with one mind. They denied and ignored the problem and this is the result. Without fuel, running water, or food and given the huge quantities of radiation saturating the environment, we could see as many as 50 million Americans embarking a long, slow death from radiation poisoning. As people pass by Washington DC, they can turn to Barack Obama and say thank you. They can say thank you to George W. Bush and his father. They can thank Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter as well as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and all the pro-nuke scientists and politicians who receive lobbying support from the nuclear giants Entergy and Excelon. They can also thank the corporate Democrats and Republicans, FOX News and all the climate change deniers. They say thank you for having lied to us. We trusted you; and now we have no one to bury our dead or care for our sick.

This is not science fiction; it’s the possibility of a worst case scenario. We are confronted with a decision: Do we put our trust and faith in the authorities as we did during hurricane Katrina or as the Japanese did with pro-nuke politicians lying about the health threats at Fukushima? Or do we demand that the necessary precautions be taken at every nuclear plant and energy facility to safeguard against a total collapse? How is it that the Federal Reserve found $16 trillion of tax free money to give to Wall Street banks and other corporations yet we can’t find a penny to fix our aging power grids or establish emergency facilities in America’s cities and towns?

The most reasonable approach would be to decommission all nuclear plants and put alternative clean energies in their place. The technology is already here and can easily replace the less than 15 percent of energy the nation gets from nuclear power. This way, when a solar storm comes, for the first time in history we will be prepared to confront the challenges. Non-functioning solar panels or wind turbines pose no risk to human life and the environment. A best case scenario will play out- no one will die or be injured and no chaos will ensue- all because we chose to stand up and prepare.

What is a Solar Storm?

Solar storms are generated by randomly-occurring enormous bursts of magnetic energy emitted by the sun. They have the potential to penetrate Earth’s magnetic field and disrupt the power grids, radio communications and satellite technology. Scientists representing agencies such as NASA inform us that we are currently experiencing a spike in solar activity characterized by stronger and more frequent solar storms. They expect that this activity will reach its peak during the next two years. There are two major phenomena associated with solar storms- solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation that occur in response to the buildup of magnetic energy around sunspots. These emissions occur at random intervals and produce a range of different electromagnetic waves including gamma, x-ray and radio. When directed at Earth, the radiation particles in solar flares directly affect the ionosphere and have the potential to interfere with radio equipment and navigation satellites.

Coronal mass ejections (CME) are enormous bubbles of magnetic plasma that are released from the outer atmosphere, or corona, of the sun. The plasma, also known as solar wind, is comprised of billions of tons of charged particles that travel through space at velocities close to the speed of light. The power of a strong CME can approach that of 1 billion hydrogen bombs. It takes 20-30 hours for an Earth-directed CME to reach our atmosphere - an event that has the potential to trigger a geomagnetic storm resulting in electrical power outages and the disruption of satellite, television and radio communications.[1]

In 1859, the combined impact of a large solar flare and coronal mass ejection generated the largest recorded solar storm in the last 500 years during what has become known as the Carrington Event. The Carrington solar storm rendered telegraph systems worldwide inoperable and caused sparks to jump from communication equipment.[2] On March 13, 1989, another geomagnetic solar storm, but much milder than a Carrington event, wreaked havoc with power grids in the Canadian province of Quebec and beyond, leaving 6 million people without power for nine hours. Large power transformers located in New Jersey even melted due to the influx of radiation. [3] Over the course of a few hours, the relatively small flare had resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.[4]

In recent years, members of the scientific community have expressed their concerns over the potentially devastating results that a significant solar storm would have today. At a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in the winter of 2011, leading scientific authorities representing NASA and the NOAA warned that a solar storm directed at our planet could bring about a “global Katrina” costing the world economy 2 trillion dollars.[5] The participants urged preparation for solar storms noting an uptick in solar activity over the last year - a trend that they predict will peak in 2013. The group of scientists emphasized that our modern technology, increasingly dependent on satellites, is far more vulnerable to geomagnetic storms than even a decade ago.[6] A disruption to our satellites would prevent people from engaging in daily activities such as carrying out credit card transactions, utilizing cell phones and accessing the internet.

A discovery by NASA scientists in 2008 suggests that Earth's power grid is even more vulnerable to space weather than previously thought. Much to their surprise, NASA scientists found an enormous hole--four times the size of the Earth--in our planet's magnetic field. Five of NASA’s THEMIS satellites recorded the density of the breach in the magnetic field at 90% less than the norm. This discovery suggests that Earth's power grid is even more susceptible to incoming solar flares and coronal mass ejections. In an interview with NASA science news, Jimmy Raeder, a physics professor at the University of New Hampshire stated that this breach in the magnetic field allows for “the perfect sequence for a really big event."[7]

Speaking with National Geographic News, Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics said that a powerful solar storm could effectively leave entire cities without power for months or even years.[8] Yes, years! He noted that the large transformers that would likely be blown out during a solar storm are in short supply – a fact that could lead to serious complications when trying to restore power. Baker is just one among a growing chorus of researchers in the field of astrophysics who have gone on the record stating that a solar storm on the scale of the 1859 Carrington event would dramatically compromise our global communications systems and fry electrical power systems.

In a phone interview for this report, Richard Lordan, senior technical executive for power delivery and utilization at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was more optimistic in his assessment of the electrical grid’s defenses during a coronal mass ejection. Lordan brought up that the modern power grid is highly interconnected and built with redundancies that protect against failure. Commenting on EPRI’s research into the possibility of America experiencing large scale blackouts caused by space weather, he stated that “we have not found that kind of vulnerability”. Still, Lordan conceded that the nature of geomagnetic disturbances can be unpredictable and that “it’s not reconciled how these transformers will respond” in the event of a major solar storm.

In an interview on the Progressive Radio Network, investigative journalist Lawrence Joseph spoke about a report from the National Academy of Sciences and NASA that was published in December 2008. The report concluded that a coronal mass ejection could leave 100-130 million people without electricity in North America alone.[9] Such a lapse in access to electricity would deprive people of access to gasoline and refrigeration as well as severely curtail the operations of law enforcement and the military. The consequences of an event would be profound as millions of people would have very limited or no access to food and water. In addition, it would halt the operation of power plants that require electricity to run – this includes coal, gas, oil and nuclear plants.[10]

One of the most immediate concerns in the event of a solar storm knocking out the electric grid is preventing the meltdown of nuclear reactors. Nuclear plants function through the process of nuclear fission. This process utilizes radioactive material such as uranium to boil water at very high temperatures; this is in turn creates steam to power turbines that generate electric power. All the while, a constant stream of coolants is introduced via electric pumps to prevent the radioactive fuel from overheating and melting the fuel rods. In most nuclear reactors, the pumps run on power from electric grids and are not self-sustaining. Consequently, if the electric grid were to fail during a solar event, the cooling system in nuclear plants would be unable to function.

In such an emergency, nuclear power facilities will use backup generators and batteries to power the electric pumps. In most nuclear plants, the batteries last about 8 hours while the generators, fueled by diesel, will keep the system operational for approximately 72 hours.[11] If the electric power grid is still not restored after the contingency power sources have been exhausted, a nuclear meltdown will occur. To safely shutdown a nuclear reactor requires months of circulating coolant through the system. As it stands, virtually every one of the approximately 700 nuclear reactors worldwide would be unable to execute a proper cool shutdown if the electric grid were to fail for a week or more. It is therefore feasible that a considerable solar storm could trigger a series of devastating nuclear meltdowns across the world.

The destructive nature of nuclear meltdowns was put on full display earlier this year after an 8.9 magnitude earthquake the struck Fukushima Japan on March 11. Nuclear and medical experts predict that the large quantities of radiation unleashed during the accident at Fukushima will result in untold harm to human health for generations.[12] Reactor 3 at Fukushima, which was breached during the earthquake, contained plutonium – one of the most deadly nuclear contaminants known to man. If even a tiny grain of plutonium is breathed in, it will cause so much damage to body tissues that cancer is a near certainty.[13] Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported in August that the amount of cesium-137 that has leaked from the plant so far is 168 times greater than what was released during the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima in 1945.[14] The amount of Iodine -131, a radioactive isotope that has very damaging effects on the thyroid gland, was also found to be 2.5 times greater than what was measured after the Hiroshima bomb.[15] These statistics are a sobering reminder that the tragedy of the Fukushima meltdown will become even more evident in the months and years to come. The people who were and still are exposed to high levels of ionizing radiation emitted in the aftermath of the quake are almost certain to develop cancers and a host of other health issues related to the harmful nuclear fallout.

A report released by Russia’s Federal Atomic Energy Agency last month reveals that the government has issued “emergency notices” to the directors of the country’s nuclear power plants regarding the potential impact of solar storms. The agency’s missive warns that space weather has the potential to cause “massive blackouts” and “spontaneous atomic explosions” and mentions that the “worst events” are still to come.[16] The notice also references the need to prepare, especially considering the significant solar-induced blackouts that recently plunged large parts of Chile into darkness for many hours.[17]

A central challenge in preparing for solar storms is the protection of extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers. Around a third of the electric power generated in the United States comes from 350 immense, 100 ton, transformers positioned at power substations across the country. In general, the higher the voltage running through transformers, the more vulnerable they are to power surges induced by an electromagnetic storm. The models utilized in the United States today transmit voltages in the extra-high range - up to 765kV.[18] Roughly 80% of Americans’ power grids are reliant on 500kV and 765Kv transformers.[19] Only China possesses transformers that support higher voltages- some of which can reach 1,000kV.[20]

There is currently a six month- two year waiting list to purchase replacements for these electric transformers which are manufactured in China and India.[21] EPRI’s Lordan put the cost of these transformers on the global market at $5 to $10 million. According to Laurence Hecht of the publication 21st Century Science & Technology . “only one plant exists in the U.S.A. capable of manufacturing a transformer up to 345 kV. There is no manufacturing capability in the U.S.A. for 500 kV and 765 kV transformers.”[22] Due to their size and complex nature, extra high voltage transformers are very difficult to repair and almost always require replacements. About half of all the transformers that are made break down during testing or prematurely malfunction after installation.[23] Speaking to the Progressive Radio Network, Lordan also noted that the installation of these transformers is a lengthy process which takes about a month to complete.

Preparing for Grid Failure

Despite attempts by some members of Congress to protect our electric grids against solar storms, lawmakers have been remarkably reluctant to address this matter in a meaningful way. In June 2010, the House of Representatives’ voted unanimously in favor of the Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense Act, or HR-5026, which was aimed at taking steps to protect the US power grids from solar storms . Later last year when it was introduced in the Senate, the bill was stripped of all references to protecting the power grids. House member Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland commented on the inaction by the Senate saying:

"While one part of the federal government was warning us of possible solar electromagnetic-pulse damage to our electric grid, a key Senate commission approved a bill to ignore this threat”[24]

Even the steps taken by utility companies to protect electric infrastructure appear to be disproportionate to the stern warnings set forth by officials in the scientific community. Southern Company, a utility provider to nearly 4.5 million customers in the Southern United States, stated in an email that “Southern Company does not anticipate transmission issues on our system from the solar flares/geomagnetic disturbances” but went on to say that the company is working with the Electric Power Research Institute and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation on studies to better understand the effects of solar activity on the power grid.

Finding a Solution to Solar Storms

A viable measure that could be taken to curb the effects of solar storms on our power grid is the installation supplemental neutral resistors. According to the Metatech corporation, a California-based company specializing in research into the effects of electromagnetic activity, these resistors would reduce the impact of electromagnetically induced electric power surges by 60-70%.[25] A congressional estimate from 2001 placed the cost of installing of this equipment, or “hardening” power grids at $150 million.[26]

In preparation for difficulties with the electric grid associated with space weather, the Department of Homeland Security is funding the Electric Power Research Institute to develop a modular replacement transformer that will be tested in the field next year. Several other innovators are pioneering technologies that would allow alternating currents to flow on cable lines while canceling out the effects of power surges from space weather. Many of these projects are still in the conceptual stages and would require more funding and support before they can be tested and implemented.

Aside from the common sense solution of phasing nuclear reactors as quickly as possible, there are actions that can be taken to avoid a nuclear meltdown in the wake of a geomagnetic storm. One measure that could significantly decrease the threat of a meltdown is for each nuclear facility to stockpile sufficient amounts of diesel or propane fuel and backup generator parts that will allow for a secure cool shutdown of the plant over the course of several months. Since a solar storm could radically hamper the transportation of fuel and replacement parts for generators, it is imperative that at least a year’s worth of materials be stored on-site in case of an emergency.

An additional safeguard against meltdowns is the implementation of a closed loop system wherein the electricity produced by the nuclear reactor is used to sustain the pumps that power the cooling system. This may ensure that the plant continued to function independent of the electric grid and make an emergency shutdown unnecessary. Several ongoing international projects are developing this technology. A current joint venture between Russian and Italian scientists is aimed at creating a self-sustaining nuclear reactor known as Ignitor.[27] However, such a system may take years to be operative and would exceed NASA’s 2013 time frame. 

Despite the fact that the implementation of these preventative measures might prove expensive, the alternative of denial and delay would be far more costly, both financially and in terms of human life. We face many obstacles in preparing our energy infrastructure for the inevitable effects of solar flares and coronal mass ejections. We cannot afford to wait like sitting ducks on the verge of annihilation simply because we never chose to challenge the authorities and implement the necessary changes to our power grids. The time for preparation grows short, and while certain government agencies and interest groups have taken preliminary steps towards pre-emptive action and advocated preparedness this is simply not enough. We must steadfastly demand that real action be taken by our energy officials to mitigate the impact that solar storms will have on humanity. Demands need to be made to halt the relicensing of aging, corroding reactors and to begin with the immediate shut down of America’s 104 units. If we don’t act now, we will have to face the consequences of what could likely amount to an earth-shattering global nuclear Katrina. 

NOTES

[1] Wall, Mike. "Solar flares can pack a powerful double burst - Technology & science - Space - Space.com - msnbc.com."msnbc.com N.p., 7 Sept. 2011. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44432611/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/solar-flares-can-pack-powerful-double-burst/>

[2] Bell, Trudy, and Tony Phillips. "NASA Science News."NASA.gov. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. <http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflar

[3] Ibid

[4] "NASA Science News."NASA.gov. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/23oct_superstorm/

[5] Cookson, Clive . " Scientists warn of $2,000bn solar ‘Katrina’."Financial Times. N.p., 20 Feb. 2011. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/67444b2c-3d13-11e0-bbff-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ZptSAhaZ

[6] Ibid

[7] Phillips, Tony. "Giant Breach in Earth's Magnetic Field Discovered ."NASA Science News. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Oct. 2011. <http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/16dec_giantbreach/

[8] Lovett, Richard. "What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?."National Geographic News. N.p., 2 Mar. 2011. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/

[9] May 24th, 2011."The Gary Null Show. Progressive Radio Network. 24 May 2011. Radio

[10] Ibid

[11] Cappiello, Dina. "Long Blackouts Pose Risk To U.S. Nuclear Reactors."The Huffington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/blackout-risk-us-nuclear-reactors_n_841869.html

[12] Knocking on The Devils Door. Dir. Gary Null. Perf. Harvey Wasserman. Gary Null & Associates, 2011. DVD

[13] Ibid

[14] "Fukushima caesium leaks 'equal 168 Hiroshimas' - Telegraph."Telegraph.co.uk. N.p., 25 Aug. 2011. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8722400/Fukushima-caesium-leaks-equal-168-Hiroshimas.html>.

[15] "Fukushima radiation 168 times that of Hiroshima atomic bomb / World / Home - Morning Star."Morning Star. N.p., 28 Aug. 2011. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/108783

[16] "Super Sun Blast Fears Put Russian Nuke Plants In Lockdown | EUTimes.net."The European Union Times. N.p., 25 Sept. 2011. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://www.eutimes.net/2011/09/super-sun-blast-fears-put-russian-nuke-plants-in-lockdown/

[17] Ibid

[18] Joseph, Lawrence E. "Lawrence E. Joseph: The Solar 'Katrina' Storm That Could Take Our Power Grid Out For Years."The Huffington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-e-joseph/the-solar-katrina-storm-t_b_641354.html>.

[19] Hecht, Laurence. "The Solar Storm Threat to America's Power Grid."21stcenturysciencetech.com. N.p., 13 June 2011. Web. 3 Oct. 2011. <www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Solar_Storm_Threat.pdf

[20] Ibid

[21] "America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation."The National Academies Press. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12091&page=574

[22] Hecht, Laurence. "The Solar Storm Threat to America's Power Grid."21stcenturysciencetech.com. N.p., 13 June 2011. Web. 3 Oct. 2011. www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Solar_Storm_Threat.pdf

[23] Joseph, Lawrence E. "Lawrence E. Joseph: The Solar 'Katrina' Storm That Could Take Our Power Grid Out For Years."The Huffington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-e-joseph/the-solar-katrina-storm-t_b_641354.html>

[24] "Bill Amended to Delete Threat to Electric Grid During Federal Government Alert of Solar Storm." Representative Roscoe Bartlett. N.p., 5 Aug. 2010. Web. 4 Oct. 2011. http://bartlett.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=202311

[25] Hecht, Laurence. "The Solar Storm Threat to America's Power Grid."21stcenturysciencetech.com. N.p., 13 June 2011. Web. 3 Oct. 2011. <www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Solar_Storm_Threat.pdf>

[26] Ibid

[27] McKenna, Phil. "Nuclear Reactor Aims for Self-Sustaining Fusion - Technology Review."Technology Review. N.p., 25 May 2010. Web. 5 Oct. 2011. http://www.technologyreview./energy/25379/