“Paul Stares” - Mid East: Preparing for unpredictable

3/5/11
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/50713.html
Momentous out-of-the-blue events like the protests and upheavals convulsing the Middle East and North Africa inevitably prompt questions about why Washington failed to see them coming.
The usual response is that we must do better at detecting critical signals, connecting the dots and sharing information in a timely manner. These are all commendable goals. But they are not—in this case—where the shortcomings lie.
It is hard to imagine that anyone, or any early warning system, could have foreseen how the self-immolation of lowly fruit vendor in Tunisia would trigger the downfall of two heads of state — and probably more to follow. The random interplay of people and actions was — and continues to be —inherently unpredictable.
This does not mean, however, that we should resign ourselves to being forever at the mercy of events. We can prepare for the unpredictable in at least three ways:
